Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist insights
Rapid monetary tightening points to a high risk of recession and, given lags in the way it impacts the economy, just
because it hasn’t happened yet does not mean it won’t.
However, a combination of falling inflation, a lack of excesses beyond inflation, excess household saving, the
possibility of rolling sectoral recessions & strong population
growth (in Australia) mean we could still avoid recession.