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Recession versus “goldilocks” – five reasons why we could still avoid recession

Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist insights

Rapid monetary tightening points to a high risk of recession and, given lags in the way it impacts the economy, just

because it hasn’t happened yet does not mean it won’t.

However, a combination of falling inflation, a lack of excesses beyond inflation, excess household saving, the

possibility of rolling sectoral recessions & strong population

growth (in Australia) mean we could still avoid recession.

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