China’s economic destiny

February 13, 2019

Below is the start of a rather provocative article written by Fidelity International on the future of China. The article is written as though it is 2029 and they have taken two scenarios, one a positive outlook for their economy and one not quite so good.


If the below teaser interests you let me know and I’ll send the rest through…… is quite a long article (6 pages).





China's economic destiny: Choose your own adventure


It is the year 2029, and you are living in a world where China has:

a) Stumbled and become stuck in the middle-income trap

b) Overtaken the United States as the preeminent economic superpower


Choose carefully: either outcome has tremendous implications for the international order, and the pace and shape of economic growth globally.


What follows is not a forecast but an exploration of possible bull and bear China scenarios over the next 10 years; for illustrative purposes, in some cases we have presented quite extreme or colourful examples. Actual outcomes might well fall somewhere in between: China could become the next US (as superpower), the next Japan (ageing and indebted), some combination of the two - or it could simply muddle through. Overall, we see three areas where reforms (or the failure to reform) will have the biggest impact on the arc of China’s development in the coming decade: the financial, industrial, and consumer sectors.


First, the case for stagnation.

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