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Presidential election, Our forecast: two weeks out


An article by Aberdeen Standard Investment


Biden to win?

We have increased the probability of Biden winning the US presidential election to 75% from 65%. Meanwhile, President Trump’s odds of re-election have fallen from 35% to 25%. But we continue to be wary of assuming that the race is a done deal. There is still the potential for last-minute risks to the frontrunner to materialise, as was the case in 2016.


Possible scenarios

We think the probability of a Democratic clean sweep (our base case) has risen to 50%. Meanwhile, the probability of Biden with a split Congress is down slightly to 25%. These predictions are based on ongoing strength and recent improvements in Biden’s polling, combined with financial and political challenges facing the Trump campaign.


We have shaved 5% off the probability that Trump wins the election with and without a Republican majority in the Senate. This leaves the probability of Trump winning with a split Congress at 20% and a 5% probability of a Republican clean sweep.






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