The US election is shaping up as the next major risk event for 2016, with Brexit receding to the background. While Clinton is regarded as the status quo candidate, Trump represents significant policy uncertainty given his populist, anti-establishment proposals. Betting markets currently place only around a 25% chance of Trump winning office in November. But, as recently as a month ago, Trump was narrowly leading in the polls, so he should not be discounted. In this note, Tim Rocks, Head of Market Research & Strategy, considers what a Trump presidency could mean for the global economy and markets.